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CVX or COP - Which Energy Stock Deserves Your Attention?
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Key Takeaways
CVX offers a 4.6% dividend yield and $6.9B in Q1 returns, backed by 38 years of dividend growth.
COP added scale via a $22.5B Marathon deal, reducing capex while sustaining output.
CVX eyes 6-8% production growth in 2025, fueled by Tengiz, Permian, and Gulf of Mexico projects.
Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) and ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) are two titans of the U.S. energy sector, each commanding a global footprint and multi-decade track record in upstream oil and gas. While both companies operate extensive assets in the Permian Basin and across key international regions, their strategies diverge in areas like dividend policies, capital discipline, and long-cycle project exposure. As oil markets navigate ongoing price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and shifting demand dynamics, comparing these two names offers investors valuable insight.
Both stocks share a common identity as oil-weighted, large-cap producers with diversified portfolios and disciplined capital return frameworks. However, Chevron is more income-focused, with a long history of dividend growth, while ConocoPhillips emphasizes capital efficiency and diversified growth drivers, including LNG and strategic acreage additions. For energy investors balancing the search for reliable yield with long-term capital appreciation in a turbulent macro climate, this matchup is especially relevant.
Here’s a closer look at how the two companies stack up across key financial and strategic metrics.
The Case for Chevron Stock
Dividend Yield and Defensive Appeal: Chevron’s 4.6% dividend yield stands out as one of the highest in the sector, underpinned by 38 consecutive years of dividend growth. In Q1 2025, the company returned $6.9 billion to its shareholders, balancing $3 billion in dividends with $3.9 billion in buybacks. This income reliability, especially in an uncertain macro backdrop, positions CVX as a compelling option for investors seeking defensive exposure with consistent cash returns.
Production Growth: Chevron is ramping up global production, targeting 6-8% growth in 2025. Key contributors include the Tengiz expansion in Kazakhstan, Gulf of Mexico deepwater projects like Ballymore and Anchor, and further development in the Permian Basin. The Tengiz project alone, where Chevron holds a 50% stake, has recently hit a significant production milestone, adding momentum to the company’s volume growth story.
Cost Discipline and Efficiency Focus: After years of heavy capital investment, Chevron has shifted into a period of efficiency gains. Management expects $2 billion in structural cost savings in 2025, with another $2–$3 billion in efficiencies expected in 2026. These savings, combined with innovations like triple-frac well completion in the Permian, are improving capital efficiency and strengthening free cash flow.
Guyana and Global Asset Upside: Chevron’s impending acquisition of Hess would give it access to the prolific Stabroek Block in Guyana — home to more than 11 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. This resource, along with stronger output from Chevron’s international assets in Nigeria and Australia, diversifies its upstream base and offsets potential output risk in more mature basins. The deal also strengthens long-term cash flow, with a potential $10 billion boost by 2026.
The Case for ConocoPhillips Stock
Marathon Deal Unlocks Scale and Efficiency: ConocoPhillips’ $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil has added meaningful scale and diversification across the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford. First-quarter 2025 production hit 2.389 million BOE/D, and earnings climbed despite soft commodity prices. Early cost synergies have already resulted in significant capex reduction without trimming output expectations, showcasing strong operational control.
Global LNG and Alaska Investments: COP’s strategic moves in LNG and Alaska are positioning it for long-term growth. A breakthrough LNG deal with China’s Guangdong Pearl River supports global gas expansion, while renewed access to Alaska’s reserves fuels progress at the Willow project. These assets, along with its stakes in Qatar and Port Arthur LNG, are expected to generate multi-billion-dollar free cash flows post-2027, providing stable earnings streams for years to come.
Cash Flow Strength and Shareholder Returns: ConocoPhillips reported $5.5 billion in cash from operations in Q1 2025, a 23% year-over-year increase. Free cash flow jumped over 32% from the previous quarter, while the company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders — close to half of the cash from operations — through dividends and buybacks. Importantly, these returns were made while reducing capital and operating costs.
Diversified Asset Base: ConocoPhillips boasts a highly diversified portfolio across both short-cycle and long-cycle assets, which leads to smooth earnings and reduces dependence on any single basin or commodity trend. The company’s Lower 48 operations — especially in the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken — provide flexible, high-return volumes, while long-cycle projects in Alaska, Canada, and Qatar offer stable, low-decline production.
Price Performance
Over the past year, Chevron has held up better, declining roughly 3%, while ConocoPhillips is down around 13%. The more defensive income profile and stable dividend likely helped CVX withstand broader energy sector volatility, whereas COP’s performance reflects sensitivity to production news and macro sentiment shifts.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation Comparison
Chevron trades at a forward P/E of over 19X, while COP trades at a more modest 16X. The valuation gap suggests that COP may offer more upside potential if operational momentum continues and LNG contributions begin to scale. CVX’s valuation, on the other hand, may already reflect expectations around its Hess deal and near-term production growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Estimates
EPS forecasts for the two stocks diverge. Chevron’s earnings are expected to fall 32% this year but rebound strongly by 27% in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ConocoPhillips is projected to see a smaller 20% earnings decline this year, followed by a modest 2% dip in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
This suggests more stability in COP’s near-term outlook, but a potentially stronger rebound scenario for CVX, should global conditions improve.
Conclusion
Both Chevron and ConocoPhillips are currently rated a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a balanced view of their strengths and risks. Chevron excels in income generation, global diversification, and operational efficiency, making it a stock to track for conservative investors. ConocoPhillips, meanwhile, offers stronger valuation upside, disciplined capital allocation, and meaningful long-term growth optionality through LNG and Alaska.
Image: Bigstock
CVX or COP - Which Energy Stock Deserves Your Attention?
Key Takeaways
Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) and ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) are two titans of the U.S. energy sector, each commanding a global footprint and multi-decade track record in upstream oil and gas. While both companies operate extensive assets in the Permian Basin and across key international regions, their strategies diverge in areas like dividend policies, capital discipline, and long-cycle project exposure. As oil markets navigate ongoing price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and shifting demand dynamics, comparing these two names offers investors valuable insight.
Both stocks share a common identity as oil-weighted, large-cap producers with diversified portfolios and disciplined capital return frameworks. However, Chevron is more income-focused, with a long history of dividend growth, while ConocoPhillips emphasizes capital efficiency and diversified growth drivers, including LNG and strategic acreage additions. For energy investors balancing the search for reliable yield with long-term capital appreciation in a turbulent macro climate, this matchup is especially relevant.
Here’s a closer look at how the two companies stack up across key financial and strategic metrics.
The Case for Chevron Stock
Dividend Yield and Defensive Appeal: Chevron’s 4.6% dividend yield stands out as one of the highest in the sector, underpinned by 38 consecutive years of dividend growth. In Q1 2025, the company returned $6.9 billion to its shareholders, balancing $3 billion in dividends with $3.9 billion in buybacks. This income reliability, especially in an uncertain macro backdrop, positions CVX as a compelling option for investors seeking defensive exposure with consistent cash returns.
Production Growth: Chevron is ramping up global production, targeting 6-8% growth in 2025. Key contributors include the Tengiz expansion in Kazakhstan, Gulf of Mexico deepwater projects like Ballymore and Anchor, and further development in the Permian Basin. The Tengiz project alone, where Chevron holds a 50% stake, has recently hit a significant production milestone, adding momentum to the company’s volume growth story.
Cost Discipline and Efficiency Focus: After years of heavy capital investment, Chevron has shifted into a period of efficiency gains. Management expects $2 billion in structural cost savings in 2025, with another $2–$3 billion in efficiencies expected in 2026. These savings, combined with innovations like triple-frac well completion in the Permian, are improving capital efficiency and strengthening free cash flow.
Guyana and Global Asset Upside: Chevron’s impending acquisition of Hess would give it access to the prolific Stabroek Block in Guyana — home to more than 11 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. This resource, along with stronger output from Chevron’s international assets in Nigeria and Australia, diversifies its upstream base and offsets potential output risk in more mature basins. The deal also strengthens long-term cash flow, with a potential $10 billion boost by 2026.
The Case for ConocoPhillips Stock
Marathon Deal Unlocks Scale and Efficiency: ConocoPhillips’ $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil has added meaningful scale and diversification across the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford. First-quarter 2025 production hit 2.389 million BOE/D, and earnings climbed despite soft commodity prices. Early cost synergies have already resulted in significant capex reduction without trimming output expectations, showcasing strong operational control.
Global LNG and Alaska Investments: COP’s strategic moves in LNG and Alaska are positioning it for long-term growth. A breakthrough LNG deal with China’s Guangdong Pearl River supports global gas expansion, while renewed access to Alaska’s reserves fuels progress at the Willow project. These assets, along with its stakes in Qatar and Port Arthur LNG, are expected to generate multi-billion-dollar free cash flows post-2027, providing stable earnings streams for years to come.
Cash Flow Strength and Shareholder Returns: ConocoPhillips reported $5.5 billion in cash from operations in Q1 2025, a 23% year-over-year increase. Free cash flow jumped over 32% from the previous quarter, while the company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders — close to half of the cash from operations — through dividends and buybacks. Importantly, these returns were made while reducing capital and operating costs.
Diversified Asset Base: ConocoPhillips boasts a highly diversified portfolio across both short-cycle and long-cycle assets, which leads to smooth earnings and reduces dependence on any single basin or commodity trend. The company’s Lower 48 operations — especially in the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken — provide flexible, high-return volumes, while long-cycle projects in Alaska, Canada, and Qatar offer stable, low-decline production.
Price Performance
Over the past year, Chevron has held up better, declining roughly 3%, while ConocoPhillips is down around 13%. The more defensive income profile and stable dividend likely helped CVX withstand broader energy sector volatility, whereas COP’s performance reflects sensitivity to production news and macro sentiment shifts.
Valuation Comparison
Chevron trades at a forward P/E of over 19X, while COP trades at a more modest 16X. The valuation gap suggests that COP may offer more upside potential if operational momentum continues and LNG contributions begin to scale. CVX’s valuation, on the other hand, may already reflect expectations around its Hess deal and near-term production growth.
EPS Estimates
EPS forecasts for the two stocks diverge. Chevron’s earnings are expected to fall 32% this year but rebound strongly by 27% in 2026.
ConocoPhillips is projected to see a smaller 20% earnings decline this year, followed by a modest 2% dip in 2026.
This suggests more stability in COP’s near-term outlook, but a potentially stronger rebound scenario for CVX, should global conditions improve.
Conclusion
Both Chevron and ConocoPhillips are currently rated a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a balanced view of their strengths and risks. Chevron excels in income generation, global diversification, and operational efficiency, making it a stock to track for conservative investors. ConocoPhillips, meanwhile, offers stronger valuation upside, disciplined capital allocation, and meaningful long-term growth optionality through LNG and Alaska.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.